It is anticipated that Prime Minister Narendra Modi is poised to secure his third consecutive term in 2024, despite the presence of the INDIA alliance. This prediction stems from a recent survey conducted by India Today-CVoter Mood of the Nation. The BJP-led NDA is projected to secure 306 seats, commanding a 43 percent share of the votes. In contrast, the INDIA alliance is predicted to attain 193 seats with a 41 percent vote share. Independently, the BJP is expected to cross the majority threshold with 287 seats, marking a decrease of 13 seats from its 2019 Lok Sabha election count of 303. It’s worth noting that in the prior election, the NDA had secured 33 seats.
Moving to vote shares, the BJP’s share is expected to experience a 2 percent increase, reaching almost 39 percent. Similarly, the Congress is anticipated to elevate its vote share by 2 percent, reaching a total of 22 percent. However, the gap between the two parties remains substantial, with the BJP maintaining a lead of nearly 17 percent. Meanwhile, the combined vote share of other parties is projected to decline from 43 percent to 39 percent. In terms of seat distribution, the Congress is set to enhance its count by 22, reaching a total of 74 seats – marking its highest achievement since 2014. Other parties, on the other hand, are predicted to secure 182 seats.
The survey findings also suggest that the INDIA coalition is likely to make inroads in West Bengal and Bihar. In West Bengal, the alliance is expected to secure 24 seats, whereas the NDA is projected to attain 18 seats – mirroring the saffron party’s 2019 performance. Shifting focus to Bihar, the INDIA alliance is predicted to secure 26 seats, while the NDA might secure 14 seats. In the previous election, the NDA had made a clean sweep in the state, securing 39 out of 40 seats.
The survey outcomes also reflect the potential for the BJP to replicate its 2014 performance in Uttar Pradesh, where it is poised to secure a significant portion of the seats, totaling 72 out of 80, with an approximate vote share of 49 percent. In contrast, the INDIA alliance, which includes the Samajwadi Party, is projected to secure only 8 seats, with a vote share of 38 percent.
A noteworthy aspect of the survey is the skepticism expressed by a majority of respondents concerning the opposition alliance INDIA’s ability to challenge the dominance of the BJP. According to the survey, 54 percent of respondents expressed doubt regarding the INDIA coalition’s capacity to overcome the BJP, while 33 percent held a more optimistic perspective.
In terms of the opposition’s strategy, recent developments have seen the alliance adopting the name “INDIA” (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance). This is a departure from the previous denomination of the Congress-led alliance as “UPA” (United Progressive Alliance).
Notably, the survey data also indicated that 39 percent of respondents believed that the name change could potentially attract more votes for the INDIA alliance, while 30 percent remained unconvinced. Among potential leaders of the opposition, Rahul Gandhi emerged as the favored choice to lead the INDIA alliance, followed by West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal.